iri cpc model plumes
Several operationally oriented centers update datasets in near–real time, which allows scientists to monitor the tropical Pacific. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. August 2019. Note  – Only models that produce a new ENSO prediction every month are included in the above statement. Probabilities for La Niña are no higher than 7% throughout the forecast period. are not yet available when the official CPC/IRI ENSO probability forecast (Fig. A purely objective ENSO probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and statistical forecasts shown in the ENSO Predictions Plume. In the most recent week, the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -1.1 C, in the weaker portion of moderate La Niña category, and -0.95 C for the month of September, in the stronger portion of the weak La Niña range. The aspects of the circulation that were perhaps most consistent with El Niño were the distinctive wave trains tracing a great-circle route across the North and South Pacific Oceans. This is updated on the second Thursday of every month. A purely objective ENSO probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and While most models are not initialized with the same SST data, the dynamical models use higher-resolution analyses like the daily OISST. There can be several reasons for differences. Overall, how substantial is the effect of long-term variability on seasonal ENSO characteristics, dynamics, and predictability? At mid- to high latitudes, changes to the long-wave pattern interact with synoptic-scale eddies, resulting in the persistence and recurrence of storms and other synoptic events over certain regions. 1) is made, the official forecast uses as one of its inputs the but also from the 21 months previous to this month. The thick blue and red lines show the skill for targets from DJF 2013/14 to FMA 2016. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. forecasts from the plume models that are run in the first half of the month. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are It is updated near or just after the middle of the month, using The forecaster consensus supports that view in light of significant atmosphere-ocean coupling already in place. Some models predict outside of that interval in either direction. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. The forecaster consensus supports that view in light of significant atmosphere-ocean coupling already in place. In some cases, however, they are given for 1-month periods, for 3-month periods that skip some of the periods in the above table, and/or only for a region (or regions) other than Nino 3.4. The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region No model predicts La Niña development. Differences among the forecasts of the ENFEN also noted that Niño-1+2 forecasts created using the North American Multimodel Ensemble (Kirtman et al. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland. Forecasters are encouraged to use the standard 1971-2000 period as the base period, or a period not very different from it. A purely objective ENSO probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and statistical forecasts shown in the ENSO Predictions Plume.Each of the forecasts is weighted equally. During DJF 2015/16, above-average 500-hPa geopotential heights dominated the tropical latitudes and the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, with a large anticyclonic anomaly over Siberia during DJF 2015/16 (Fig. A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Nina (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 and to weaken during the spring . The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region attained a weak El Niño level beginning late February 2015, strengthened to moderate strength around mid-May, and strengthened further to a strong level beginning around mid-July. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. This alternative method uses the mean of the predictions of all models on the plume, equally weighted, and constructs a standard error function centered on that mean. GMAO staff discovered a mistake in the calculation of ensemble mean fields that resulted in an under-representation of ensemble spread and Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. For less difficult readability, forecasts are shown to a maximum of only the first As in 1997, a series of westerly wind bursts during the first quarter of 2015 (Fig. Discrepancies among the climatological SST resulting from differing base periods may be as high as a quarter of a degree C in the worst cases. 3 and 4) are still from the third Thursday of the previous month. Evolution of seasonal (3 month) averaged values of the (top left) Niño-3.4, (top right) Niño-4, (bottom left) Niño-3, and (bottom right) Niño-1+2 SST indices during 2015/16 (red), 1997/98 (blue), 1982/83 (green), and 1972/73 (purple). made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Complicating this assessment, however, each center relies on a set of core observational datasets for its ENSO updates, so the exact values for a given variable (e.g., Niño-3.4 SST) will vary depending on which dataset is examined. The eastern Pacific OLR index is strongly skewed compared to the central Pacific index, reflecting nonlinearity in SSTs (e.g., Takahashi and Dewitte 2016), so the differences in evolution with 1997/98 and 1982/83 are more dramatic. IRI ENSO Forecast IRI/CPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast Published: December 17, 2015. The westernmost Niño-4 index values were particularly remarkable compared to the previous events, with seasonal values near +1.0°C through most of 2015, and a peak just shy of 1.5°C during NDJ 2015/16. The best source of the ENSO forecast data is official CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. The SST indices in the two westernmost Niño regions, Niño-4 and Niño-3.4, cooled throughout the month, and the Niño-3.4 index was -1.1ºC in the past week (Fig. thick yellow line, and of the statistical models by the thick green line. Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. An alternative way to assess the probabilities of the three possible ENSO conditions is more quantitatively precise and less vulnerable to sampling errors than the categorical tallying method used above. Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model predictions as the actual probabilities. The CPC/IRI materials are not included in this licensing. All forecasts hence will have the correct fields. A final possibility for the departure from the linear ENSO estimate is the potential influence of subseasonal activity across the global tropics (e.g., Kelvin waves, Madden–Julian oscillation), which exerted an influence on tropical rainfall and was aliased into the seasonal averages. 1) is made, the official forecast uses as one of its inputs the General Email IRI ENSO Forecast IRI/CPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast Published: September 24, 2013. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the continuation of La Niña. So, how well did this observed pattern relate to El Niño? Related to this, the pressure differences across the tropical Pacific, as measured by the two Southern Oscillation indices, suggest the 2015/16 El Niño had less amplitude relative to the other events. While some aspects of the 2015/16 El Niño rivaled the events of 1982/83 and 1997/98, we show that it also differed in unique and important ways, with implications for the study and evaluation of past and future ENSO events. Thirdly, forecasts made at some Below the third plot, we provide a mechanism for highlighting the forecasts of one model at a time against The ACs were in excess of 0.6 going out to lead-8 for both model types, with dynamical models demonstrating slightly more skill for lead-0 to lead-7. Forecasters are leaning toward the dynamical model average, which is also supported by the current tendency of the ocean toward cooler conditions. Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. A caution regarding this latest set of model-based ENSO plume predictions, is that factors such as known specific model biases and recent changes that the models may have missed will be taken into account in the next official outlook to be generated and issued early next month by CPC and IRI, which will include some human judgment in combination with the model guidance. Going back to at least 1950, seasonal Niño-3.4 index values were near record at the peak of the event, but the spread among different datasets (Fig. 4, and is shown in Fig. Subsurface temperature anomalies from the dateline eastward in the equatorial Pacific have been near to just slightly below average during the last month, with strongest negative anomalies well east from the dateline.

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